Your Saturday 24/1 float for Aston Villa v Everton

Villa Aston (-1)
Over 2.5 goals
Less than 10.5 corners
More than 4.5 cards

*A Bet Builder with these selections pays approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

Saturday 12:30 p.m.: Aston Villa v Everton
Television: BT Sports

Is the second week of the season far too early to call a game a ‘must win’ for both teams? Almost certainly, but if there was ever a legitimate candidate, this might be the one.

The weekend’s opener sees a battle between teams led by Steven Gerrard and Frank Lampard, former international teammates who struggled to play on the same team. Everyone could see it except whoever was in charge of England at the time.

The pressure will be on both. Losing to newly promoted Bournemouth last weekend was obviously not the start the Villa faithful were looking for. Although they edged the Cherries 15-7, most of their efforts were from long range and Bournemouth had more attempts from inside the box. Everton will no doubt seek to similarly restrict them.

Unfortunately for the Toffees, they had a poor record on the road last year and they haven’t had much joy at Villa Park since the home side were last promoted. No Premier League team won fewer away games last season, and they were beaten 3-0 in the corresponding game 11 months ago.

While that scoreline flattered Villa a little, it’s unclear where Everton’s goals are likely to come from. Richarlison is now with Spurs and Dominic Calvert-Lewin is injured. The team Lampard fielded against Chelsea last weekend had more wingers than anything else and the players available averaged just one goal every five games at best last season.

Villa are desperate to improve and are unlikely to be particularly good in this game. Everton’s injury defense should help them and they can keep the Blues at bay to secure a two-goal win to take care of. Villa Aston (-1) in the disabled markets.

Paddy doesn’t expect many goals here, and with Everton on the attack it’s easy to see why. However, only five Premier League sides have played more games in which there were at least three goals than Villa in 2021/22, while Everton were fifth in the table for away games only.

As well as their 3-0 win in that game last season, the Villans also picked up a 4-0 win over Southampton and a 3-3 draw with Leeds at Villa Park, and these were the teams that finished from either side of Everton. Six of the Blues’ nine away games against other bottom-half teams paid the Over 2.5 goals the last quarter and this game will be too.

Gerrard and Lampard will have scored plenty of goals from corners over the years and have probably picked up a few assists as well. Their teams didn’t have too many last season, however, and that was especially true for Everton (who had just two more clubs than bottom club in the corner table, Brentford).

The last five meetings of these teams have all featured between nine and 11 corners, which makes it difficult to choose a line. As they had nine between them last weekend, we will take the Less than 10.5 corners.

The last encounter for these sides, which Villa won 1-0 at Goodison Park in January, was a fiery affair. There were nine yellow cards, a total equaled by just three other Premier League games last season.

It’s too early to draw conclusions for 2022/23, but these teams were involved in two of the three games last weekend which also saw at least five bookings. With their games averaging 4.2 and 3.8 yellow cards respectively last season, we should go high or go home.

The only potential problem is Michael Oliver, an below average referee when it comes to dealing cards. But with both teams desperate for a win and having a history of bookings, the decent price for More than 4.5 cards is too good to resist.

Villa Aston (-1)
Over 2.5 goals
Less than 10.5 corners
More than 4.5 cards

*A Bet Builder with these selections pays approximately 24/1 with Paddy Power. CLICK HERE TO ADD IT TO YOUR BETSLIP.

All prices are up to date with our stylish widgets, while copy odds are accurate at time of publication but subject to change

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