the 10th of saturdayThe 3rd Churchill Downs Stakes is the Tier 1 Churchill Downs Stakes for ages four and up running seven stages on the main track (start time 4:31 p.m. EDT).
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No. 5 REINVESTMENT RISK (7-2) is interesting for Chad Brown. He was clearly the second best for Jackie’s warrior twice in one-trick graded races as a juvenile in 2020, and he won big money in those races and even won money in the Hopeful (G1). He only raced once last year and was a distant 3rd. He came back with a razor-sharp sprint victory at Gulfstream on February 26, and dueled from the rail and was clearly 2nd behind Speakers’ Corner in the Carter (G1) on April 9. His numbers jumped in his first two starts as a four-year-old and he’s shunning rail and numbers to keep up.
No. 8 Cezanne (7-2) is now conditioned by Todd Pletcher and he was a good performer for Bob Baffert. He won the Kona Gold (G3) last year and the seven-panel San Carlos (G2) on March 5. and he plans a stalking trip outside.
Jackie’s No. 3 Warrior (5-2) is deadly around a round and could easily come back all the way. The tiered winner boasts strong Speed and Speed ratings and should make their presence felt throughout. It is 2 for 2 at Churchill and 2 for 3 with a second place at this distance. It also likes a wet track and looks like main speed.
Prevalence No. 6 (6-1) is very good now for Brendan Walsh. He squeezed and cruised a mile down a fast track at Gulfstream on March 5, and clicked straight from an outpost in the Commonweath Slope (G3) at that distance on April 9. He’s drawn well and should make a decent tactical trip, and he’s sporting a pair of seven panel wins. His numbers have advanced well in his last pair.
1 Aloha West (7-2) upset the Breeders’ Cup (G1) sprint to 11-1 when last seen in the fall. I had my doubts that he could get up at six furlongs last time, but he proved me wrong (Dr. Schivel was my first choice). He’s struck twice on this trip and once in Churchill, but it’s not easy to win an extended sprint on the bench.
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No. 5 to win
Trifecta Box 3-5-8
Recent Best Bet Winners
May 5 – Tom’s Regret ($6.40), trifecta ($430.80)
May 6 – Olympiad ($3.80), exacta ($12.00)