Twins vs. Red Sox Odds
|Red Sox Odds||-145|
|More less||9 (-115/-105)|
|Weather||11:10 a.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Keep up to date MLB odds here.|
The Red Sox host the Twins on Monday for the four-game final on Patriots Day.
The Red Sox will send fan favorite Rich Hill to the mound. The 42-year-old southpaw started his outing effectively last Tuesday against Detroit, but crashed out in fifth and couldn’t get out of the inning.
Minnesota will start Dylan Bundy, hoping the big right-hander can build on a strong start to the campaign in his last outing against Seattle.
Is Bundy potentially flying under the radar after horrendous results last season, or will we see a Red Sox roster that performed well against him post a big number on Monday?
What is Bundy’s impact on this game?
For the Minnesota Twins to post a winning record this season, two key factors will play a role: AL MVP pick Byron Buxton will need to stay healthy and the starters at the back of the rotation will need to be strong.
Well, the Twins have had some bad luck on the Buxton front before, as the star centre-back was injured in the opener of this series and remains day to day.
Bundy was terrific in his first start against Seattle, though, and would provide a huge boost for the Twins if he put up competent innings all five days. Bundy allowed just one hit in five innings and held a 4.65 QOPA on 67 pitches against Seattle.
However, five innings shouldn’t justify a completely changed mindset toward a pitcher, and Bundy struggled mightily last season. Beyond that, he doesn’t get along well with this Boston team, which has hit him hard historically.
Bundy had a 4.82 xERA in 90.2 innings pitched last season, and the batters owned a 10.3 percent barrel rate and .335 xwOBA. Bundy was prone to allowing big innings, and while he was able to avoid a few jams the first time around this year, he has yet to prove that flaw is gone.
Rafael Devers has a .550 SLG% against Bundy in 24 plate appearances, Xander Bogaerts has hit .694 in 42 at bats and even Jackie Bradley Jr. has hit .433 against him.
If Bundy managed to get another strong start in a tougher spot here, it would be a pretty notable turnaround. This is especially the case as the Sox have a historically strong record with him.
Minnesota could find support against Hill if Bundy falters. The Twins’ expected roster against LHP includes six hitters with a wRC+100 last season (seven with Buxton), and they should improve in that regard.
The Red Sox will soon experience offensive success
It’s a bit difficult to quantify what to expect from Hill this season, but I think something along the lines of his last outing against the Tigers could be close to average results – even if the final stat line was pretty harsh relative to overall performance.
Hill has the ability to keep batters away from his fastball with great breaking tricks, is smart in his ability to untime batters and find creative outs, and exhibits solid walk rates.
However, when hitters can see his breaking stuff, the lower average fastball speed of 88 will be a problem. I think seeing Hill manage significantly better numbers than last season would be surprising.
Hill pitched at a respectable 4.45 xERA at age 41 last year.
The Sox haven’t fully kicked into high gear yet offensively, but it’s one of baseball’s most proven rosters. I think we know they will find a lot of success at home plate going forward.
Patriots’ Day games are very important in Boston, and I’m counting on the stars for this one.
The daily roster against right-handers remains similar this year, and last season the Sox posted a 120 wRC+ at Fenway with a .359 wOBA in at-bats vs. right-handed pitcher.
Twins-Red Sox pick
Boston’s regular order beat effectively against right-handed starters last season, and a number of its stars have historically had Bundy’s number.
It looks like a good place for the hearts of the Red Sox order to build on their recent great performance. I think we’ll see them get to Bundy for more than three earned runs and get into the Twins’ bullpen.
We can expect Minnesota to manage an offense against Hill as well.
I believe the majority of Red Sox wins will come in high-scoring games, which makes me see the value in backing a Red Sox win plus nines at +215.
To take: Boston Red Sox + Over 9 Parlay +215 (Play to +200)
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