The elite driver will bet on Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400

NASCAR Cup Series drivers are set to race 400 laps for Sunday’s Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway (3 p.m. ET, USA).

Even if they’re good to go, bettors should be prepared to take a little break watching Saturday’s practice times for today’s race.

The track conditions changed drastically between the first and second practice groups, relegating the second group to times nearly half a second slower per lap than the first group.

This means that we have to analyze each group separately and add track history, as well as performance on that type of track and tire combination this year.

By combining all of these factors, I have found a driver that stands out in a multitude of bets.

My favorite of the bunch is below.

NASCAR pick for Richmond

*Sunday morning odds

Let’s start simple.

Joey Logano has finished in the top five in 11 of his last 18 starts at Richmond. For those who score at home, it is a rate of 77.8%.

These last 18 starts are significant, as it marks the debut of the Gen-6 car.

Yes, Logano’s only start in the Next Gen car was earlier this year when he finished 17th. But remember, Logano ran hard all day until a faulty jack during a late pitstop cost him dearly.

Now add his on-track performance this weekend, and he shines.

At first glance, you might think “Logano was only 13th in practice”.

At second glance you can tell “he only had the 10th best 10 lap average”.

Both are true.

It is also true that he was the the fastest conductor at both times among his practice group.

That’s because he came out in the slower second group, where changing track conditions meant no driver could set a time within about 0.4 seconds of the best time in the first group.

It’s also true that he was on pace for a much better qualifying lap until a wobble dropped him to his current 17th starting spot.

Oh, did I mention he has the best average race position on this tire this year?

Simply put, we get a driver that:

  1. Has a 61.1% success rate to finish in the top five at this track over a sample of 18 races
  2. Was the fastest in his training group
  3. HAS the best average rolling position on this tire this year

The +300 line in the Kambi books is an absolute steal. Even at DraftKings, where it’s +250, there’s value.

My model says it should be +220 for a breakeven bet, and I think that’s underestimated. This is because it is impossible to properly quantify his training and qualifying times.

The bet: Joey Logano Top-5 Finish +300 | Bet on: +200

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