Sunday Night Football Player Betting Picks & Predictions: Dolphins vs Steelers (Week 7)

We’re here to guide you through Week 7 of the NFL. Here are some of our favorite player prop bets for Sunday Night Football: Steelers vs Dolphins.

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Check out the best player prop bets for this week’s slate with our NFL Prop Bet cheat sheet >>

Najee Harris U59.5 Rush Yards (-245)

After being a first-round pick in numerous fantasy football drafts after a stellar rookie season, Harris has been a disappointment so far in 2022. His stat line includes just 264 yards on 83 carries (3.2 ypc ) and only one game on 56 rushing yards. all season. Not only did Harris lack explosiveness, but the Steelers offensive line also struggled.

I don’t expect Harris to return to rookie form in Miami this weekend. The Dolphins defense allows RBs 3.7 yards per carry and 71.3 rushing yards per game, both of which are the third-lowest marks in the league. That’s despite playing the Jets and Vikings in their last two games — two of the best offenses in the NFL.

The flow of the game is unlikely to help Harris. With the Dolphins sitting among the more than one touchdown favorites, it’s likely they’ll take an early lead against the Steelers. If the latter has to throw the ball to keep up with the Dolphins’ explosive offense, I doubt Harris will have the opportunity he needs to gain a lot of rushing yards.

Kenny Pickett O194.5 Pass Yards (-265)

In limited action to start his rookie campaign, Steelers first-round QB Kenny Pickett has shown promise. He led a late comeback against the Jets that flopped in its opener after taking over from Mitch Trubisky. The following week, Pickett threw for 327 yards on 52 attempts in a loss to Buffalo. Most recently, he held off a strong Buccaneers defense in Week 7 before leaving early with concussion symptoms.

This week, Pickett faces the worst pass defense he’s faced all season. The Dolphins have allowed opposing QBs to post a 105.5 QB rating against them this season. This is the 4th worst score in the league. Their 7.9 yards allowed per attempt means an average QB would need about 25 passing attempts to break 195 yards against the Dolphins.

Unlike Harris, I expect the flow of play to help Pickett on Sunday night. If the Dolphins take a lead and the Steelers offense is forced to soar, Pickett should have no problem going over 195 passing yards. A combination of plenty of opportunities and a suspect Dolphins pass defense will help him post a solid yardage total.

Tyreek Hill 100+ receiving yards (+170)

Before the season, there were questions about how Hill would fare in an offense without Patrick Mahomes. Through six games, it’s clear that Hill is going to have a massive season in Miami. Hill leads the league in receiving yards with 701 yards — an insane 116.8 yards per game. That’s despite his signature game – the ball deep in man cover – harder to come by with Tua missing the last two games. His longest catch in that span is just 28 yards.

The Steelers, on the other hand, were the NFL’s worst defense against the WRs. They allowed opposing WRs to post 211 receiving yards per game – the worst rating in the NFL. Their secondary has always struggled to contain the other team’s weapons on the outside.

With Tua back and against a suspect defense, Hill should have a monster game on Sunday. I see the flow of play as a risk here – if Miami is big, they can run the ball to sit on their lead – but I like the value offered here.

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