We’re here to get you ready for Week 6. Here are our top player prop betting picks for Sunday’s NFL action roster.
Prop Bet Analyzer: View top rated props and historical prop performance by player >>
NFL Week 6 Player Prop Bet Picks & Predictions: Sunday
Kyler Murray MORE THAN 261.5 passing yards (-115)
Murray leads the league in pass attempts (215) and completions (141). He’s averaging just 248.2 passing yards per game, down from 270.5 last year, as he went from 7.9 yards per attempt in 2021 to 5.7 this year. That number is set to rise, and it’s a safe bet that Murray will top 5.7 yards per attempt this week against a porous Seattle defense that has given up 8.8 yards per attempt this year. Cardinals RB James Conner is out with a rib injury and could sit out, which could thwart Arizona’s attempt to run the ball effectively and force Murray to throw more than 40 times.
Breece Hall OVER 57.5 rushing yards (-115)
Hall’s use continues to grow. He played 66% of the Jets’ offensive snaps and had 17 carries in Week 4. Hall had a 69% snap share and had 18 carries in Week 5. Expect another week of heavy use against a funneling Green Bay defense. Opponents run the ball on 50% of their offensive snaps against the Packers, who are giving up 112.4 rushing yards per game.
Diontae Johnson LESS THAN 58.5 receiving yards (-115)
Johnson is still adjusting to a post-Roethlisberger landscape. In five games with either Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett at quarterback, Johnson is averaging 9.5 yards per catch and 5.3 yards per target — up from 10.9 and 6.9 last season with Ben Roethlisberger at QB. I’m very interested in the underlying bets involving Johnson these days because RB rookie George Pickens looks like a budding superstar for the Steelers and seems destined to surpass Johnson as Pittsburgh’s top receiver. Johnson also has a tough game this week against a Buccaneers defense allowing 6.7 yards per target to wide receivers. He’s likely to run most of his routes against Tampa CB Jamel Dean, who, as my colleague Derek Brown notes in this week’s episode of the primerallows a catch rate of 44% and a passer rating of 44.6 on throws in his coverage.
Saquon Barkley Over 3.5 receptions (+100)
Saquon Barkley has been Big Blue’s entire offense. The electrifying back is second in rushing yards per game. However, his receiving chops should be on full display this weekend.
First, according to the Betting Pros consensus line, the Giants are 5.5 point underdogs. Therefore, the game script should be negative for Big Blue, leading to passing more often.
Second, Barkley is Big Blue’s headliner in the passing offense. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Barkley leads the Giants in routes (125), targets (23) and receptions (18). Barkley’s role has led to at least four targets in four of five games this year. He also had over 3.5 receptions in New York’s only loss this year.
The game is great too. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens have faced the second-most pass attempts against running backs per game (8.8) this year. As a result, Baltimore has allowed running backs an average of 7.2 receptions per game in 2022. Finally, five running backs have had at least four receptions against the Ravens in a game this year. So Barkley should be the next to break that bar, and FantasyPros projects him for 4.3 receptions.
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