NFL odds: Bet on any of these 10 players to win the NFL MVP title

By Jason McIntyre
FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Football is officially back, baby! And when it comes to gambling, NFL MVP is one of the most fun futures bets you can make.

If you don’t mind tying up some of your bankroll for a little while, I can help you dig into the numbers. You should be able to determine who you want to give money to based on just one factor: quarterback position.

The last nine MVPs have been quarterbacks, and in the past 15 years, a signalman has been named the league’s most valuable player 14 times.

A few of these players started out as long shots to win the prize, but they’re usually anomalies. Lamar Jackson (2019) opened at 100-1 but was bet at 50-1 before the start of the season after coach Harbaugh indicated he would have a historic number of run attempts. Likewise, Patrick Mahomes (2018) opened at +3300 only because he entered this season with just one regular season start under his belt.

Looking ahead to this upcoming season, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence are all talented young quarterbacks to watch, and they have long chances. However, ask yourself one important question before betting on these guys… will the 49ers, Jets or Jaguars finish the year leading the playoffs? Unless you believe their respective teams will be among the top playoff seeds in their conferences, they really don’t stand a chance.

However, there are a handful of quarterbacks, I really think do stand a chance of winning MVP at the end of the season, so let’s dive into my picks. And as always, all odds are via FOX Bet.

1. Justin Herbert: +1000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $110 in total)

Herbert’s hype has gotten a bit out of control, so you wonder if the 24-year-old can handle all the attention. But he was one of the top six quarterbacks in the NFL last season using any forward metric, throwing for 5,014 yards and 38 touchdowns. And, the addition of rookie Zion Johnson to OL bolsters the unit’s weakest group, so the Chargers offense should once again be deadly. Justin could go through last season’s accomplishments as easily as Sunday morning.

However, this bet is not without risk. It’s still the toughest division in football. There is a scenario where the Chargers could finish 10-7 in the loaded AFC and still miss the playoffs, and as mentioned above, the MVP is usually on a team with a playoff seed.

2. Josh Allen: +700 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $80 in total)

The Bills are Super Bowl favorites, and Allen has arguably the best skill set in the AFC at his disposal. They are three deep at running back after adding James Cook – Dalvin’s younger brother – to the NFL Draft. And wide receiver Gabriel Davis looks set for a breakout role after his eight receptions, 201 yards and four touchdowns in the stinging playoff loss to the Chiefs.

After a few stumbles last November, Allen completed 77% of his passes and had nine touchdowns and no interceptions in two playoff games. The only question about the former Wyoming star is how he will adjust to the loss of OC Brian Daboll, who has been replaced by Ken Dorsey – Buffalo’s QB coach for the past three seasons .

3. Russell Wilson: +1700 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $180 in total)

What’s more incredible – that Russell Wilson never received an MVP vote or that he’s the most popular MVP bet so far? Wilson is set for a monster year with an improved offensive line and a healthy receiving core in Denver.

If you look hard enough, you can find stats that point to the Broncos the defense being… overrated. If that’s the case, Wilson will need his usual late-game heroism to pick up some wins, and with five prime-time games, he’ll have plenty of chances to impress voters.

4. Kirk Cousins: +5000 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $510 in total)

Cousins ​​is one of the most polarizing QBs in the league, but he was ranked in the top 10 QBs last season. Cousins ​​also has one of the best young receivers in the league in Justin Jefferson. But more than anything, he has a new, attacking-minded head coach. Kevin O’Connell comes from the Sean McVay coaches tree, and we just saw what McVay disciple Zac Taylor did for Joe Burrow.

Cousins’ last six opponents are the Jets, Lions, Colts, Giants, Packers and Bears. Cousins ​​should fire everyone but the Packers.

Additional note: there’s no way Aaron Rodgers will win a third straight MVP, especially with all the signs that Green Bay is being carried by their defense this year.

5. Tom Brady: +850 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $860 in total)

Tom Brady is about to turn 45, which is unfathomable for an NFL quarterback. But as we’ve all learned, never rely on TB12. The addition of Julio Jones is a nice move, as Brady will be without wide receiver Chris Godwin for at least two months. But the main reason Brady is so high is because the NFC South is a joke.

The Bucs will once again win at least 11 games and maybe even clinch the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Brady was the MVP in 2017, and if he won a fourth, he’d tie Aaron Rodgers and trail only Peyton Manning most of the time.

6. Patrick Mahomes: +800 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $90 in total)

Mahomes lost his most reliable receiver to Tyreek Hill, but he’s only behind Allen in chances of winning the award? Hmmm.

He is coming off his worst season in the NFL, in which he had the lowest QB rating of his career. Mahomes also led the league in lowest turnovers and yards per attempt. At times last year, it appeared teams had figured it out with the two-tier safety defense.

But even with all that, look for Mahomes to post big stats in the regular season. It’s just not a price I like.

seven. lamar jackson: +2200 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $230 in total)

He already has an MVP, and now he’s playing for one of the richest QB contracts in league history. Lamar Jackson is for you if you are the type to bet on players who bet on themselves.

Pass catchers remain a problem. Sophomore WR Rashod Bateman is the next best option after the Hollywood Brown trade, but Jackson has dealt with that throughout his tenure in Baltimore. There’s also some trepidation about how another year of OC Greg Roman and Jackson will go together since Roman isn’t making the necessary adjustments historically.

Remember, it took three seasons with Roman and Colin Kaepernick in San Francisco for the defenses to solve the play option.

8. Matthew Stafford: +1600 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $170 in total)

Stafford had the best season of his career in his first season in Los Angeles. In the playoffs, he led the Rams to three straight wins with nine touchdowns and just three interceptions. But, he struggled in the regular season, leading the NFL with 17 interceptions, including seven in the past three games. However, when you win the Super Bowl, all is forgotten.

On offense, there is good news and bad news this season for Stafford. The good news is that he has a healthy running back in Cam Akers and the Rams traded Odell Beckham for Allen Robinson at receiver. Worst of all, the offensive line lost its best player and locker room leader in Andrew Whitworth.

9. Joe Terrier: +1300 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $140 in total)

Joe Cool had one of the best second years in NFL history, completing 70% of his passes and leading the Bengals to the Super Bowl. But he’s also been sacked a league-high 51 times, so Cincinnati wisely improved the offensive line this offseason.

Why isn’t Burrow higher on the list with all of his weapons back? Well, the Bengals have the toughest schedule in the league down the stretch. They come out of the bye with two games on the road, then they host the Chiefs and Browns. After that, they hit the road again for the Bucs and Patriots and finish with the Bills and Ravens.

If Burrow somehow wins six of those games, he’ll have a very good shot at becoming the MVP. I think going .500 in these games is much more realistic, which won’t help his MVP case.

ten. Aaron Jones: +12500 at FOX Bet (bet $10 to win $1,260 in total)

The top 17 players with the best odds of winning MVP are all QBs. But if you want to take a long non-quarterback shot to win the award, consider Green Bay’s Aaron Jones.

With Davante Adams gone and the Packers’ pass-catching group looking less than impressive, Jones could have a LaDainian Tomlinson-type season where he racks up over 2,300 scrimmage yards and at least 20 touchdowns.

AJ Dillon will score a few, but the bet here is triple. The Packers offensive line is considered a top-five unit and enters 2022 much healthier than last year; Jones is expected to easily surpass his 2021 receiving numbers (52-391-6) and the schedule for opposing run defenses includes just three games against projected units that rank in the top 10. At those odds, he’s worth l money for a pizza.

Jason McIntyre is a FOX sports betting analyst, and he also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. He joined FS1 in 2016 and has appeared on all network shows. In 2017, McIntyre began producing NFL, college football, and NBA gaming content for FOX Sports. He had a gaming podcast for FOX, “Coming Up Winners,” in 2018 and 2019. Before coming to FOX, he created The Big Lead website, which he sold in 2010.

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