This week, the Eagles and Commanders will square off at Monday Night Football in Philadelphia. It’s going to be a great game for both teams — Philadelphia hopes to hold on to its spot at the top of the NFC standings and its perfect record, while Washington hopes to get back to .500 and stay in playoff contention.
The Eagles enter the game as 10.5-point favorites. The books think they should be able to win this game without too much trouble, which should open up some nice value in the prop markets for this game. Below is a 4 inning bet on Draftkings that I’ll play for the game of Monday.
Stage 1: Eagles half-time/full-time winner (-210)
I tried to play the Eagles Halftime/Full-Time last time they were heavy favorites against Houston, and the Texans scored on the last drive of the first half to even the score. Despite that loss, I come back to the Eagles halftime/finish as great exposition to the thesis that the Eagles will win this game hands down. With the spread sitting at 10.5 points and the normal moneyline game sitting at -500, I don’t see much value in either game.
The Eagles have been the best first half team in the NFL this season. They had led at halftime in every game this season until last week’s draw against Houston. Their 20.1 first-half points scored per game are the NFL’s highest at 3.8 points, while their 9.0 first-half points allowed are 7th best in the league.
Washington, on the other hand, struggled in the first half of this year. The Commanders scored just 6.0 points per game in the first half, the 2nd lowest in the league. Their first-half defense also ranks in the bottom half of the NFL.
I expect the Eagles to take a lead in the first half and sit on that one in the second half.
Step 2: AJ Brown on 69.5 receiving yards (-130)
AJ Brown had a stellar first season in Philadelphia. In eight games this year, he had 43 catches for 718 yards and six touchdowns. His consistency and great playing ability is a big reason why QB Jalen Hurts has become a legitimate MVP candidate this season.
Brown is expected to have an outstanding game against the Commanders defense on Monday night. Washington allows 174 yards per game against opposing WRs, the 7th most in the NFL. The Commanders’ 14.5 yards per catch allowed opposing WRs to rank 3rd worst in the league. After trading CB William Jackson, the Commanders secondary is slim to enter the game against the Eagles’ exceptional WR group.
I expect AJ Brown to get looks early and often on Monday night, and I think he should have no problem crossing the 70-yard mark.
Stage 3: Dallas Goedert under 54.5 receiving yards (-155)
While Washington’s defense has been poor against opposing WRs, it’s actually been very good against opposing TEs. Commanders allow 3.67 receptions for 33.0 yards to opposing TEs per game — those marks rank 6th and 3rd best in the NFL, respectively.
Dallas Goedert is having a great year for the Eagles and topped 100 receiving yards in their last game. Despite that, I don’t expect him to maintain that level of production against Washington. A big reason for this is the relative weakness of the commanders’ defense against WRs. The Eagles are excellent at attacking their opponents’ biggest weakness – I think they will focus their passing game around their WRs.
If the Eagles get up big, they probably won’t throw the ball too often. I think the throws they make will be aimed at attacking Washington’s weak secondary rather than the middle part of the field, where Goedert does his best.
Stage 4: Taylor Heinicke under 244.5 Pass Yards (-215)
Since Taylor Heinecke took over in Washington, he’s done a great job. Heinicke is 2-1 in a narrow loss to the Vikings last week and has completed 63% of his passes for 5 touchdowns and 629 yards. Despite the success he’s had, I don’t think he’ll be able to rack up big totals against the Eagles.
Philadelphia is allowing opposing QBs just 199 passing yards per game — the third-lowest mark in the NFL. They had one of the best secondaries in the NFL this season, headlined by CB star Darius Slay. Heinicke has been safely under 245 yards in two of his three starts this season, with Game 3 being a huge comeback on the Colts.
I expect Philadelphia to plan their game against Heinicke well and keep him under 244.5 passing yards, even if he gets high volume in a game where he’s trailing.
Betting odds: +525
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