We explain why you should take the More on Justin Fields passing yards player prop bet for the next 2022 NFL season.
Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop Bet: Why You Should Bet The Most
Current passing yards over/under for Justin Fields:
- 3299.5 passing yards at BetMGM
- 3,335.5 passing yards in DraftKings Sportsbook
Why should you bet the Over:
- New Bears coaching staff will help Fields
- Fields should improve his performance under pressure
During his 10 starts in 2021, Justin Fields averaged 187 yards per game, putting him on pace for 3,179 over a full 17-game schedule. He would only need a moderate improvement in this pace to achieve the upper hand on these props.
Reason #1 to bet more for Justin Fields
While we don’t know much about the Bears’ offensive coaches 一 offensive coordinator Luke Getsy will be calling plays for the first time 一 it’s hard to imagine that this staff isn’t an upgrade over Matt Nagy and his team.
Nothing epitomized Nagy’s incompetence better than Fields’ first career start game plan against Cleveland, in which 17% of his pass attempts were RPOs.
This was problematic because Fields didn’t use RPOs often at Ohio State (8% of his successful attempts) and struggled when he did (-5.8 EPA on RPOs).
Fields will likely have better game plans to execute under Getsy than he did in his rookie year.
Reason #2 to bet more for Justin Fields
Although Fields struggled as a rookie, it was not unexpected due to his inability to handle the pressure at Ohio State.
In his senior season in college, Fields was sacked or scrambled on 33% of his pressure drops — a rate that jumped to a league-high 42% in his rookie year.
However, Fields showed a better willingness to stay in the pocket compared to pressure as the season progressed. In his first eight games, his sack/scrambling rate was 49%, according to TruMedia一 a rate that would obviously suppress his passing numbers.
In his last four starts, Fields’ sack/scrambling rate has dropped to 33%.
If Fields continues to become more comfortable keeping his eyes on the pitch and kicking the ball under pressure, his passing numbers should continue to climb 一 and we have reason to believe that a coaching staff more knowledgeable will help Fields’ continued development in this area.
Bet Justin Fields passing yards over