MLB’s top picks on June 11: Bet on Padres to outscore Colorado

Thanks to the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies playing two games on Saturday, the MLB schedule calls for 16-weekend matchups, with neither team taking a break.

The pre-game story: The Padres look to demonstrate their dominance over a struggling Rockies club on the road, while Hunter Renfroe finds himself in a perfect game and Will Smith should thrive amid an extremely dangerous roster.

MLB picks preview

  • Padres -1.5 vs. Rockies, Game 2 (+102)
  • Hunter Renfroe on 1.5 bases (+100)
  • Will Smith on 0.5 RBI (+138)

MLB’s Top Picks

Best bet: Padres -1.5 vs. Rockies, Game 2 (+102)

You’d be hard-pressed to find a way for the Padres not to have a significant advantage in this game.

The starting pitching duel of MacKenzie Gore — a rookie sensation who allowed just eight runs in 48 innings with 57 K — against Kyle Freeland, who didn’t post a single-season fWAR as good as the total of Gore’s nine games (1.7) since 2018, feels like a mismatch.

Read more: Blue Jays pick vs. Tigers

In attack, things are decidedly more unbalanced. The San Diego squad played competently at home, while Colorado was dismal when it left the confines of Coors Field – a key factor in its 9-17 away record.

Rockies on the road .237 .292 .336 78
padres at home .235 .320 .361 101

This comparison also underestimates the recent form of these teams. Since the schedule flipped in June, the Padres have averaged 6.33 points per game. Meanwhile, Colorado has averaged just 4.0 points per game this month despite playing more than half of its games at Coors.

Another factor that tips this game in favor of San Diego is the fact that it is the second of two games of the day. That should benefit the team with the deeper bullpen, which is undoubtedly the Padres. Colorado has just three qualified relievers with a sub-5.50 ERA and a 5.03 total ERA. All six qualified San Diego relievers have an ERA of 4.15 or less, giving a relief ERA of 3.79.

If the Rockies have to burn off one of their best backup arms in the afternoon game, they’ll be in serious trouble in this night game. The Padres will not face the same concern.

Key stat: The Padres are 6-1 in their last seven games, outscoring their opponents 51-17 — and shutting them out four times.

Read more: Blue Jays vs Tigers prop picks

Quick Picks

Return to 1.5 bases (+100): You couldn’t set up a better game for Renfroe than Nationals starter Patrick Corbin. The outfielder has crushed left-handers to the tune of a .302/.333/.698 line this year while Corbin has let right-handed bats cut .309/.366/.480 against him.

Renfore also has a positive history against his veteran opponent, going 6 for 18 against the starter with two home runs.

Smith on 0.5 RBI (+138): Those are attractive odds for a guy hitting right in the middle of the Dodgers’ dominant lineup. Smith has reached fourth or fifth in 13 of his last 14 games, and he’s drawing a left-handed starter in Sam Long. This is good news for a guy who has produced a good 139 wRC+ against southpaws this season.

Odds as of 11:39 a.m. ET 6/11/2022.

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Nick Ashbourne writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @NickAshbourne

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