Maple Leafs vs. Lightning picks and odds: Bet on these heavyweights to light the lamp

The Toronto Maple Leafs, who are riding a four-game winning streak, travel to Tampa Bay to face the Lightning on Monday night.

Pre-game story: The importance of this game cannot be underestimated. The two teams are tied for second in the Atlantic Division, meaning the winner will grab sole possession behind the Florida Panthers and some distance between them and a wildcard spot.

Here are our top Maple Leafs vs. Lightning betting picks for Monday’s contest at Amalie Arena.

Maple Leafs Picks vs. Lightning Preview

  • Maple Leafs vs. Lightning over 6.5 goals (-116)
  • Lightning on 3.5 goals (-105)
  • Steven Stamkos all-time goalscorer (+150)

Maple Leafs pick vs. Lightning

Best bet: Maple Leafs vs. Lightning over 6.5 goals (-116)

Both of these teams have been scoring easily lately and there is no reason to expect either attack to slow down tonight.

The Maple Leafs have had an offensive tear, scoring five or more goals in each of their last four outings. The Lightning have also lit the lamp frequently, scoring more than four goals in each of their last four games.

Read more: How to Bet on the Maple Leafs

The concern with every over bet in a Bolts game is that goalkeeper Andrei Vasilevskiy will completely thwart his opponent. But that hasn’t been a problem lately, as the Russian keeper has allowed three or more goals in three of his last five games and seven of his last 12.

Toronto’s problems between the posts are well documented and goalkeeper Jack Campbell did little to change the narrative last Saturday. The 30-year-old earned a 6-3 win over the Philadelphia Flyers, but the start marked his sixth straight game allowing three or more goals.

It helps that both teams’ top scorers are playing some of their best hockey right now. Auston Matthews has scored a goal in each of its last five games while Steven Stamkos has buried a scorer in three consecutive games and five of his last six.

Look for offenses to shine in a game where neither can afford a night’s rest.

Key stat: Tampa Bay has surpassed that total by 6.5 goals in each of its last three games.

Maple Leafs vs. Lightning Betting Quick Picks

Lightning on 3.5 goals (-105): The Lightning haven’t had any scoring problems lately as they’ve scored 17 goals in their last four games. Additionally, Tampa Bay turned on Campbell for four goals the last time these two teams met in December. The Bolts’ 3.32 goals-per-game mark ranks eighth in the NHL this season.

Stamkos Anytime Scorer (+150): As mentioned above, Stamkos has scored one goal in three consecutive games and five of his last six. The sniper has also been putting a lot of rubber on the net lately. The 32-year-old is averaging almost four shots per game (3.83) over his last six games.

Odds provided by FansBet as of 9:16 a.m. ET on 04/04/2022.


Steven Psihogios writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @StevenPsihogios

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