Cavaliers vs Warriors Odds
|More less||232 (-110/-110)|
|Time||10 p.m. ET|
|TV||NBA League Pass|
|Odds via FanDuel. Keep up to date NBA Odds here.|
The Cleveland riders will close its five-game West Coast swing in San Francisco on Friday against Golden State Warriors. This will be the Cavaliers’ fifth game in seven days, while the Warriors will play their second home game after a five-game road trip.
Will the rested Warriors earn a well-deserved victory over the tired and shocked Cavs? Let’s take a look at how these crossover conference rivals compare to each other and where we can find betting value.
Horsemen showing small Vulnerabilities
Both losses were the result of a drop in defense, while their offense remained on track. Going into Monday’s game against the Clippers, the Cavs ranked second in defensive standings, allowing 102.9 points per 100 possessions. That number skyrocketed to 125.5 in both losses.
Against the Kings, the solid defensive presence of the Cavs’ Twin Towers, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley, was almost non-existent. They failed to deter the wing penetration and Sacramento big man Domantas Sabonis came inside and drew fouls easily.
Sabonis went 11 of 12 from the line, taking more than half the number of free throw attempts as the entire Cavs team as a whole (20).
And free throws have been a problem for the Cavs lately. When looking at team success, I often consider the four factors: eFG%, TOV%, ORB% and FT Rate. Their defensive FT rating has been horrible, averaging in the eight percentile the past two games.
In fact, the only Four Factors category they haven’t been atrocious in is ORB%. According to Cleaning the Glass, they’ve been excellent in the last two games, ranking in the 98th and 99th percentiles against the Kings and Clippers, respectively.
In the last two points, they were horrible. Against Sacramento, they ranked in the sixth percentile in defensive eFG% and TOV% and they didn’t fare much better against the Clippers, ranking in the 11th and 7th percentiles, respectively. To put that into context, these percentiles are based on each team for the entire season so far. Not good.
Warriors Slow Start starts with the bench
The Warriors have looked a bit of a mess to start this season.
I attribute this to a few factors, some more concerning than others. The argument for “everything will be fine” could be simple. It’s still very early in the season and the Warriors haven’t taken the regular season seriously as they won the most regular season games in league history in 2015-16.
However, even last year at this time they didn’t look so bad. In 15 games last season, they were 13-2 with the highest net rating, second-best eFG% and sixth-best OREB%.
While their offense looked comparable to past Warriors offenses (third in eFG%), their defense fell off a cliff. They rank in the bottom third of opponent eFG% and they allow the shortest mid-range shots in the league (25.4%), where opponents come in second (46.9%).
The Warriors’ fifth start continued to shine through it all, but the second unit is where things get tricky. Jonathan Kuminga and Jordan Poole rank in the first percentile for differential with Wiseman only slightly ahead in the second percentile.
In fact, the only Warriors bench player who ranks above the 10th percentile is Moses Moody who is in the 43rd percentile and still at a negative with a -0.7 differential.
It could have something to do with Steve Kerr’s mess with rotations, but it could also be that most of these guys just aren’t ready for NBA-level basketball.
On Tuesday, Warriors general manager Bob Myers took to 95.7 The Game’s “Steiny and Guru” and talked about sending Kuminga and Wiseman to the G League to give them a game-free experience. negatively affect the Warriors regular season. . In the last game against the Kings, Kuminga played nine minutes and Wiseman was a DNP-CD.
I’m looking to blur those two defenses, both of which have struggled lately. The Cavs and Warriors have gone over the season (both are 7-4 over), but the Warriors’ last three of four games have been under.
Instead, I watch the first half. It’s the two teams that come out and run to start the first half. The Cavs this season are 5-2 to more in the first half and the Warriors are 6-4-1.
With the Warriors on three days’ rest and the Cavs playing their fifth game in seven days, I will also be looking to bet live on the Warriors in the second half. It’s a great spot for a Golden State team that is 4-1 in the second half this season and 44-35-3 (55.7%) since the Bubbles season. The Cavs are 4-3 in the second half this season, but have lost their last two.