There’s no market to bet on quite like the NFL MVP race.
Aaron Rodgers won back-to-back MVP awards, despite not entering the year as a favorite in either season. Prior to that, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens each won an MVP award in their first full season as a starter with their respective teams.
It really is a fun way to get some action on the NFL season, and the numbers from this year’s MVP race are hugely entertaining. Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen enters as the preseason favorite with a +700 price tag at Caesars Sportsbook, which is the official odds partner of Bet Chicago Sports.
Four of the league’s biggest names are just behind Allen at odds of 10/1 or better to win the highest individual award this coming NFL season. Mahomes is at +800, while Justin Herbert and Tom Brady are both listed at +900. Rodgers is +1000 worth to win MVP for the third year in a row.
Let’s dive into everything you need to know before betting on this market:
Recent NFL MVP Winners
Like most of these rewards marketplaces, it’s all about storytelling. The writers who vote for this are human, and so there’s a formula for winning the MVP. As long as you quarterback on an elite team, you can be considered. Someone else? Better luck next time.
A non-quarterback hasn’t won the award since 2012, when Minnesota running back Adrian Peterson accomplished the feat. A quarterback has won MVP nine years in a row since then, and there’s no reason to expect that to change in 2022. Cooper Kupp had a historic season for a receiver last season — and he only managed to receive one MVP vote.
Also, a quarterback needs to be on a winning team to be in the game. Seven of the last nine winners were from teams that finished top-seeded in their respective conference. The other two MVP winners were part of teams that claimed a No. 2 seed, which would have been enough for a bye at the time before the league moved to a 14-team playoff.
|2021||Aaron Rodgers||Packers||13-4 (1 seeded)|
|2020||Aaron Rodgers||Packers||13-3 (1 seeded)|
|2019||lamar jackson||crows||14-2 (1 seeded)|
|2018||Patrick Mahomes||Chiefs||12-4 (1 seed)|
|2017||Tom Brady||patriots||13-3 (1 seeded)|
|2016||matt ryan||Falcons||11-5 (2 seeds)|
|2015||Cam Newton||Panthers||15-1 (1 seeded)|
|2014||Aaron Rodgers||Packers||12-4 (2 seeds)|
|2013||Peyton Manning||Broncos||13-3 (1 seeded)|
How to bet on the MVP market
In my opinion, there is no reason to be in a hurry to bet on this market. Think how quickly the narratives change on some of the league’s best quarterbacks after a bad game. This market will be constantly changing throughout the year, creating many opportunities to buy low talent callers.
For example, Kyler Murray was the MVP favorite for the first half of the 2021 season, while Rodgers started the season with a 38-3 loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 1. Russell Wilson seemed like the first favorite back-to-back years in 2019 and 2020. Wilson ultimately didn’t receive a single vote, losing the award to Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson in their respective seasons.
Identify the players you want to bet on for MVP, then wait for your opportunity to pounce for a better price. For me, Mahomes is still a player I will consider betting on because he is the best quarterback on the planet. Joe Burrow is sixth in odds at +1300, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he has a better price at some point this season.
The offseason is a time to try your luck on long-term bets, including a number of sophomore quarterbacks that offer intriguing upsides. But you should shoot better candidates when the market finally adjusts too much during the regular season.
Betting odds for NFL MVP
Betting odds for the 2022 NFL MVP provided by Caesars Sportsbook:
• Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: +700
• Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: +800
• Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers: +900
• Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +900
• Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: +1,000
• Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals: +1300
• Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: +1,600
• Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams: +1,600
• Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys: +1,700
• Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens: +2,000
• Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: +2,200
• Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns: +3,000
• Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles: +3,000
• Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers: +3,000
• Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders: +3000
• Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins: +5000
• Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans: +5000
• Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts: +5000
• Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings: +6,000
• Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints: +7,500
• Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams: +7,500
• Mac Jones, New England Patriots: +7,500
• All other selections are 100/1 or more