How to Bet on the Bills: From Point Spreads to Player Accessories Stefon Diggs

It had been a long time since the members of Bills Mafia had been able to feel so good in their team. Despite finishing last season with a tough loss in the AFC Divisional Round, the Buffalo Bills are on the rise.

Behind the rocket arm of Josh Allen, the Bills have become one of the best teams in the NFL. In this guide, we’ll tell you how to bet on the Bills so you’ll be prepared for the next time they hit the court.

How to bet on the Bills

When you go to bet on tickets, you will see a wide variety of betting options presented. Several factors should influence your bet, including opponent, location, recent trends and injuries.

We will review the most common betting markets that are on offer and share strategies for finding the best value when betting on Bills.

Moneyline

A Moneyline (ML) bet is a great way to bet on the Bills if you think they will win the game. A successful bet on Buffalo, or any team, only requires that team to win the game. Victories in regulation time or overtime – and by any margin – are applicable.

Sportsbooks will list Bills as favorites or losers in each game. The odds reflect this favorite/underdog status: a minus symbol (-) indicates that Buffalo is the favorite, while a plus symbol (+) indicates an underdog.

Given their recent record, the Bills will often be favorites. Their odds of winning would change dramatically in a home game against the New York Jets compared to, say, the New England Patriots. Against the Jets, we would expect the Bills to be the heavier home favorites.

Read more: How to make a teaser bet

On the road against a top opponent, like the Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo will likely be the underdog. Such was the case for its January 2022 playoff loss to Kansas City.

Here’s what the odds would look like in each game:

Patriots (+195) vs. Bills (-244)
Jets (+465) vs. Bills (-675)
Bills (+110) vs. Chiefs (-130)

The odds indicate your potential return, as well as the implied probability of each team’s chance of winning. Here’s how the game’s odds would translate if you backed Buffalo every time.

Odds Bet To win Probability
-244 $244 $100 70.93%
-675 $675 $100 87.10%
+110 $100 $110 47.62%

As stated above, Bills usually have a good chance of winning. But that doesn’t mean they’re still a strong play on the moneyline.

In the Jets example, you would have to bet $675 on Buffalo just to win $100. Although the Bills are unlikely to lose outright, given their implied 90% probability of winning, the reward may not be worth the risk to a bettor given the upheavals that occur all the time.

In the Patriots example, a bettor would have to wager $244 to win $100.

The Chiefs’ example shows what the odds were set for before Buffalo’s heartbreaking loss in the playoffs last year. Even though the Bills ultimately lost, they gave bettors strong line-of-credit value, with a $100 bet winning $110.

In cases like the Jets and Patriots games, where you want to support your favorite team and see a good return on your bet, betting on the point spread is often the best option.

Point spread bet

Unlike Moneyline bets, where you pick an outright winner, point spread bets involve winning and losing margins. If you choose an underdog, you will cover if that team wins or loses within a specified total.

Let’s go back to the Bills/Jets scenario from above. It makes more sense to pick Buffalo ATS over the moneyline if you think the Bills will rout the Jets.

On the moneyline, the Bills are a -675 favorite in this example. On the point spread, however, Buffalo could be favored to win by 12.5 points (-12.5). The increased difficulty of beating a team by 13 points instead of just one significantly alters the odds.

Most spreads come with identical odds (-110) and look like this:

Rolls +12.5 (-110)
Invoices -12.5 (-110)

If you select the Bills, you will need them to win by 13 points or more. But if you choose the Jets, they will have to win or lose by less than 13 points for your bet to cash out.

The risk of betting the tickets here is much greater than it would be on the moneyline, but the return on investment also takes a huge leap.

A $100 bet on a -675 moneyline would only return $14.91. A $100 bet on a -110 point spread, on the other hand, would return $90.91. Against an inferior Jets team, we can see how the reward of a point spread bet would be worth the risk.

Alternative spreads

Depending on your level of confidence in a point spread bet, betting on an alternate spread is also an option. In addition to the 12.5 point spread for the Bills/Jets game, sportsbooks will offer other lines on both sides of that number.

You can decide if you want to accumulate more or less points with the Bills. The odds will increase or decrease accordingly.

When betting on football there are key numbers such as three and seven which reflect common winning margins. Therefore, if you want to avoid laying down more than a touchdown or field goal, you can select other point spreads that allow you to do just that.

Before making your point spread or totals bet, check how a team has fared historically. Many sites track ATS records and over/under totals. It doesn’t hurt to see how a team is doing relative to the number before placing a bet.

Totals

A totals bet is betting on the total points of a match. This can involve betting on the aggregate score of two teams or on the score of an individual team.

The totals are called plus/minus (or O/U). It all means the same thing.

Continuing with the Bills/Jets example, let’s say the total for this matchup is set at 43.5 points. Both plus/minus options usually see odds of -110, as does the point spread.

For this market, a winning bet on the most requires the teams to combine for at least 44 points. A winning bet on the slot requires a combined score of 43 points or less.

The totals of both teams, meanwhile, will be set at lower scores than the match total. Buffalo’s total against the Jets could be pegged at 27.5. To cover the most, the Bills would need to score 28 or more points. On the other hand, Buffalo would need to score less than 28 runs for under bets to win.

You can also bet on alternative totals.

How to Bet on Bills Props

Props offer another way to play, but this type of betting does not involve choosing the winner or loser of the game.

The Accessory Market includes items for teams (which team will score 10 points first?) and players (will player X score a touchdown in the game?).

Bills players accessories will be our focus here. Touchdown markers are common player accessories and there are several variations available to a punter.

Buffalo Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs, left, catches a pass for a first down as Kansas City Chiefs safety Daniel Sorensen (49) defends during the first half of an NFL football game on Sunday Oct. 10, 2021 in Kansas City, Mo. (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

Typical touchdown markets allow a player to score the first touchdown in a game, the last touchdown, or a touchdown at any time. Considering that there is only one first touchdown in a football match and one last touchdown, the odds on these markets usually offer huge payouts.

For a player like Stefon Diggs, the Bills’ star receiver, touchdown scorer ratings might look like this:

First hit (+1000): A $100 bet would return $1,000.
Last hit (+1000): A $100 bet would return $1,000.
Anytime Touchdown (+140): A $100 bet would return $140.

In addition to touchdowns, player yards are another option bettors can bet on.

Staying with Diggs, you can bet whether the broad will go above or below his receiving yardage total for any contest. If Diggs’ receiving total was set at 71.5 yards, a successful bet on the most would require Diggs to gain 72 yards or more. Any total less than this amount would be a win for the underdogs.

Additionally, you can bet on running back and quarterback props. For quarterback props, common markets include passing yards, touchdowns, attempts, completions, longest completions, and interceptions.

If the Bills host a team with a stoned secondary, you can expect Allen to fire his opponent on the field. Therefore, it may be a good idea to take over the longest completion prop.

Odds on over/under player totals may vary, with more juice on one of the options.

Parlays and specials

Some sportsbooks will also offer the possibility to bet on promotions. A special can be built around one player or a number of outcomes that essentially make it a pre-built bet of the same game.

An example of a special commonly found in soccer betting is a scorecast. A scorecast allows you to bet on which player will score a touchdown first in addition to betting on the winning margin for a game.

Similarly, you can create a scorecast at any time to combine an anytime touchdown bet with the winning contest margin.

Suppose you bet on Dawson Knox to score a touchdown and the Bills to win by one to six runs. For this scorecast at any time, the odds could be set at +900, meaning a $100 bet would return a profit of $900. If Knox failed to score a touchdown or if the Bills did not win within the specified margin, the bet would not be cashed.

There are many other ways to bet on Bills. Other popular NFL betting markets include parlays and futures, as well as live betting.

PS

Steven Psihogios writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @StevenPsihogios

Warning This content has been produced in partnership and therefore may not meet the standards of unbiased or independent journalism.