Mariners vs. Yankees Odds
|Time||1:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Keep up to date MLB odds here.|
The trade deadline passed and the Seattle Mariners were among the buyers as they continued their playoff push.
Newly acquired Luis Castillo will take the mound after the Mariners beat the New York Yankees on Tuesday night on a seventh-inning home run by Sam Haggerty.
He will face Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who will be looking to bounce back from a six-inning, five-run outing against the Royals to close July.
Can either offense kick off against two high profile arms on Wednesday afternoon, or will it be quiet in the Bronx?
Castillo makes his debut for sailors
Castillo makes his Mariners debut on Wednesday afternoon after a trade with the Cincinnati Reds.
The right-hander was virtually untouchable in the month leading up to the trade deadline, posting a 1.93 ERA in 28 innings. Included in that four-game streak is a seven-run, one-run outing against the Yankees. He only allowed two hits.
What’s even more impressive — and beneficial to the Mariners — are Castillo’s shared stats. Away from the Great American Ballpark, Castillo has a 2.09 ERA in seven starts.
The opponents have a .220 xBA and .328 xSLG against the 29-year-old. The only area where he’s below average is walk rate, and even then he’s in the 44th percentile of all pitchers.
While the Mariners retain the second wildcard spot in the AL, offense production has dwindled. Over the last 14 days, Seattle ranks 25th in wRC+, 24th in isolated power and 29th in wOBA.
It’s also important to note that their top two hitters could be out for the series finale as Julio Rodriguez is on the injured list and Ty France is battling a wrist injury.
France took shots from the tee on Tuesday but their status remains questionable. He’s missed Seattle’s last three games.
Which Cole will the Yankees get?
It was a July roller coaster for Cole.
While the right-hander pitched at least six innings in all six starts, his ERA was 4.03 and he gave up five runs twice.
Cole has an elite strikeout rate over 30% and opponents only have an xBA of 0.208. Expected indicators are also well below its ERA of 3.30, implying that it is slightly underperforming so far.
He was impressive in almost every advanced metric aside from a below-average hard hit rate. But even then, its barrel rate fell more than 2% from 2021.
Cole also has a sparkling 2.55 ERA in 11 home starts and has actually given up fewer home runs at Yankee Stadium (eight) than on the road (10) in 16 fewer innings.
The Yankees’ offense remains one of the best in baseball even without Giancarlo Stanton entrenched in the middle of the lineup. Anthony Rizzo has had four straight games and, well… AL MVP favorite Aaron Judge needs no explanation.
New York also bolstered its already dominant bullpen at the trade deadline. The ‘pen ranks second in ERA (2.90), fourth in xFIP (3.63) and has given up the second-fewest home runs in baseball.
If you like pitching duels, then Wednesday afternoon is for you.
Castillo has been one of the best arms in baseball over the past month and is now making his debut for the Mariners. He’s seen the Yankees roster before – and shut them down – and is looking to continue his already impressive 2022 campaign.
As for Cole, you know what you’re going to get from him. He’s the Yankees ace and still in contention with Cy Young. Despite his rollercoaster ride in July, I wouldn’t be too worried about a struggling Mariners attack without Rodriguez and most likely France.
Tack that the Yankees bullpen is elite and the Mariners backend can compete with the best in MLB, and I think it’s a low-scoring series finale.
The Yankees are heavily favored and deservedly so, but I think there’s value in the Bronx on Wednesday.
Take: Less than 7.5 (-120) | Up to Under 7 (+100)
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