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How to Bet on Alabama Futures This Season

FILE - Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31) celebrates a defensive save against LSU in the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.  Anderson Jr. was named to the Associated Press All-America preseason squad, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt, File)
FILE – Alabama linebacker Will Anderson Jr. (31) celebrates a defensive save against LSU in the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. Anderson Jr. was named to the Associated Press All-America preseason squad, Monday, Aug. 22, 2022. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt, File)

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Barring some sort of injury epidemic or other personal disaster, Alabama will not only be favored in every one of their college football games this season, but favored two digits in every one of his college football games this season. (Ohio State is probably the only other team it could mean the same thing.) It’s not a new phenomenon: Last season, the Crimson Tide was also favored by double digits in the 12 regular season games scheduled. Nonetheless, Alabama coach Nick Saban recently called 2021 a “reenactment” year, even though it resulted in a second-place finish in the College Football Playoffs.

Excluding SEC Championship games, Alabama has not been a single-digit regular season favorite since Oct. 17, 2020, when it beat Georgia by 17 as a six-point favorite. home.

I’m going to go out on a limb and say Alabama will be good again in 2022, so let’s take a look at some of the Crimson Tide futures options this year and if they present any betting value.

All ratings taken Monday from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Alabama over 10.5 -300 wins

Alabama under 10.5 wins +235

How can you consider the underside here? The Crimson Tide failed to eclipse 10 wins in 2010, and there may not be a single team on this year’s 12-game schedule that should scare Alabama, let alone two teams, in least until a supposed SEC Championship rematch with Georgia. You pay a lot of juice on top, but I don’t get anywhere near the bottom. Take over or pass.

SEC Championship Game Winner

Crimson Tide’s closest – and only – competitor on the odds table in this category is Georgia at +155; all other SEC teams are at least +1800. Use of Bill Connelly pre-season SP+ ratings, the Crimson Tide would be a 1.3-point favorite over the Bulldogs on neutral ground (like, say, in the SEC Championship Game), which should put Alabama around -115 on the moneyline. So the -145 doesn’t present much value, if you think (like me and the bettors) that the Tide and the Dawgs are clearly SEC class and are destined to meet in the conference championship game. Pass.

The College Football Playoff is entering its ninth season, and Alabama has been involved in all but one previous version (2019). Until Saban stops attracting five-star rookies and Alabama stops winning more than 11 games a season, “yes” is pretty much a bet you have to make, no matter the juice — especially this year, with the defending Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback and the fifth-place Heisman vote winner leading the defense (see below).


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Heisman Trophy

DraftKings has assigned Heisman Trophy odds to four Alabama players.

QB Bryce Young +400

Young will try to achieve something that’s only been done once in college football history: repeat as the Heisman Trophy winner. Ohio State’s Archie Griffin is the only player to do so, in 1974 and 1975. Since then, 21 non-seniors have won the award. Just over half of those players (12 of 21) left to play professional football after their Heisman win, and of the nine who returned to college, only one of them (Billy Sims in 1979) even finished second in next season’s Heisman voting. . Four of nine defending Heisman winners finished third, one finished fifth, one finished sixth, and two received no votes in the season vote following their victory at Heisman.

So another Heisman is a tall order, and while Young has what could be a fantastic offensive line in front of him, his pass catchers are untested: tight end Cameron Latu is the only receiver in Returning Crimson Tide who was targeted over 30 times last season. At second best odds on the Heisman board, I’ll pass Young.

LB Will Anderson Jr. +1600

Now, here’s a candidate from the Alabama Heisman that I can follow at very good odds. Anderson, who finished fifth in voting last year, had a national record 33.5 tackles for a loss (11.5 more than his closest competitor) and 17.5 sacks. When he wasn’t terrorizing the backfield, he dropped back into pass coverage 58 times and allowed every 16 passing yards when the quarterbacks threw him at the player he was covering. It’s pure dominance, and the fact that three defensive players were among Heisman’s top 10 voters last season could be a sign that we’re ready for someone to join Charles Woodson (1997) as the only players. defensive to win the award.

Gibbs was one of the few offensive bright spots for a Georgia Tech team that finished 3-9 last season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry as the Yellow Jackets’ primary running back, catching 35 passes , averaging 25.6 yards per kickoff return and scoring seven times. . That kind of all-around production could get a lot of attention now that Gibbs has been moved to the nation’s hottest program — he’s been named Tide’s Spring Game MVP — but if a Heisman voter is considering someone on the Alabama offense, he’s probably going to be young.

McClellan was headed for an impressive year in 2021 before suffering a season-ending injury in Alabama’s Game 5. At that time, he was tied for the team lead with five touchdowns (one rushing, three receiving, one blocked punt return). But as his Heisman odds suggest, it’s the ultimate long shot, with McClellan’s odds seemingly only improving if Gibbs isn’t a factor.

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