How to bet Friday’s $56,630 Pick 5 rollover at Ellis

No one picked the Pick 5 on Aug. 7 at Ellis Park, which means a big opportunity awaits bettors when the race returns to Kentucky on Friday in the form of a $56,630 carryover into the Pick 5, which begins with Race 4 at 2:14 p.m. EDT. .

Four of the five races are inaugural races, including a pair of inaugural 2-year-old special weights as races 5 and 6. The double begins with a one-mile grass affair and continues with a 5-1 dirt race. /2 stages. Five first starters are registered in the first and seven starts in the second, which makes horse racing nationit is Report on power ratings for the first time essential to deal with this postponement.

And, it’s free!

The image above shows the rating of each of the first runners in these two races. A rating of 5 wins 22.8% and – as measured by the HRN Impact score – outperforms the betting public by 6.8%. HRN Impact uses the win pool to determine the expected number of wins (pooled instead of odds to account for withdrawals) and measures that number against actual wins.

Based on the morning line, none of the 5-star ratings in either race should take a ton of money. So for Pick 5 purposes I would be inclined to use all four no matter what.

What to do with four-star ratings is a little trickier. They gain 15.1% of the time for an HRN impact of +9.6%. So in general these are actually better bets even if they win less often.

Fortunately, the first power ratings report provides additional detail for making those decisions that may not be so obvious. (For example, just as a rating of 5 is a very likely use for me no matter what, a 1 is a guaranteed draw. They only win 4.8% of the time for a score of -16.3% HRN Impact).

#1 Traffic Master would be a 4 star example that I would upgrade based on the information available in the details. Obviously, the 15-1 is enticing, but beyond that, coach Mark Casse and father Cross Traffic match the lay of the turf road.

Below are all the efficiency numbers by rating.