Hey, watch it – the opening race on Sunday at Gulfstream Park enjoys a $4,619 rollover in the $1 Super High 5, and winning a share isn’t mathematically difficult.
Race 1 is a maiden to claim $50,000 for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on dirt, and only seven horses have been entered, equating to 2,520 possible outcomes. That’s much more manageable than the 95,040 possible results generated by a 12-horse platoon.
But despite its mathematical simplicity, Race 1 promises to be a competitive event. The five favorites offer morning odds ranging from 5-2 to 9-2, so on paper the race is wide open.
The slim favorite is #4 Concept (5-2), a beginner trained by Gustavo Delgado. Conceptus has put up a respectable working tab, and it should be noted that she is a daughter of young stallion Sharp Azteca, who sired 29% winners since her first starts. But Delgado is winning at just 7% with horses debuting at young contenders, and at an 11% rate with juveniles debuting at Gulfstream since 2017. Conceptus may have to have a run under his belt before find its maximum form.
#1 Da Journeygirl (3-1) is an intriguing alternative. After finishing fourth and sixth in her first two starts against a Florida-raised first special-weight company, Da Journeygirl netted an early $25,000 claimant and set the tone before staying to finish second. She’s stepping up in class for Sunday’s round, but the 74 Brisnet speed rating Da Journeygirl posted last time tops that field by seven points, and she’s the only obvious trailblazer in the field.
#2 Chipmunk (9-2) finished rallying third in his debut for a $50,000 tag at Gulfstream and is eligible again for Hall of Fame coach Mark Casse. The competition she faced in her debut was decent; the winner took it by a clear margin and the runner-up came back to win her next start.
A longshot worth supporting is #3 Mursal (20-1). She didn’t factor in her first two starts against the No. 1 Special Weights Company at Gulfstream, but her latest effort – an eighth-place finish – produced a speed rating of 64 Brisnet. She could get involved for a price while dropping out in class and adding blinders.
Here is how we will bet the Super High 5:
- $1 Super High 5: 1 with 2 with 4, 6, 7 with 3, 4, 6, 7 with ALL ($27)
- $1 Super High 5: 1 with 4, 6, 7 with 2 with 3, 4, 6, 7 with ALL ($27)