Game 3 Avalanche vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final pick: Bet on fewer goals in Tampa Bay

The Colorado Avalanche sent a massive message in their 7-0 win over the Tampa Bay Lightning in Game 2.

The pre-game story: Colorado’s seven-goal win on Saturday marked the biggest winning margin in a Stanley Cup Final game since the Boston Bruins beat the Vancouver Canucks, 8-1, in Game 3 of the Finals of 2011. Tampa Bay’s back is now firmly against the wall as they go home 0-2 in the series.

Check out our picks for Game 3 Avalanche vs. Lightning on June 20.

Avalanche vs. Lightning picks preview

  • Less than 6 goals (-129)
  • Lightning on 2.5 goals – regulation time (-134)
  • Tampa Bay Lightning’s first goal. No goal, no bet – Regular time (-108)

Choice Avalanche vs. Lightning

Best bet: Under 6 goals (-129)

After a flurry of goals in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Finals, we expect the scoring to slow as the series moves to Tampa Bay.

Lightning head coach Jon Cooper will now have the final change. Cooper was able to use this to his advantage in previous series and the best example was in the first round against the Toronto Maple Leafs.

Read more: Odds of winning the Conn Smythe Trophy

The Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner duo combined for 14 points in four quarterfinal home games. That number has dropped to just three points in three road games. The reason for the big difference was Cooper’s ability to pin his stopping center, Anthony Cirelli, against Matthews and Marner more often at home.

Games 1, 2, 5 and 7 were played in Toronto while Games 3, 4 and 6 took place in Tampa Bay.

Game 1 2 3 4 5 6 seven
Cirelli % of time against Matthews and Marner 18.18% 47.5% 85.18% 70.37% 44.00% 80.96% 38.46%

This is important because it is tied to the success of Colorado’s top three: Nathan MacKinnon, Gabriel Landeskog and Valeri Nichushkin. Those three combined for three evenly-strength goals, which is the most of any line in this series. Cirelli faced MacKinnon’s line 43.66% of the time in Game 1, but only 16.67% of the time in Game 2.

Expect that number to jump – and the score to fall – in Game 3.

Key stat: The Lightning have seen six or fewer goals scored in each of their last five home games.

Read more: Stanley Cup Final Game 3 Avalanche vs. Lightning prop picks

Quick Picks

Lightning on 2.5 goals – regulation time (-134): Tampa Bay is averaging 3.63 goals per game at home during the playoffs, compared to just 2.36 goals per game on the road. The Lightning have surpassed that total in five of their last seven playoff home games.

Lightning first goal. No goal, no bet – Regulation time (-108): The Lightning have made a habit of jumping to the first runs at home. Tampa Bay has scored the first goal in six of its eight games at Amalie Arena in the postseason. We like the Bolts coming out strong after being outplayed by the Avalanche in Game 2.

Odds at 4:34 p.m. on 06/19/2022.


Steven Psihogios writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @StevenPsihogios

Disclaimer This content has been produced in partnership and therefore may not meet the standards of unbiased or independent journalism.