‘Fade’ Brewers, Wednesday Woodruff; BET Cardinals, Quintana – OutKick

There is an argument to be made that the Milwaukee Brewers (82-72) have a motivation advantage over the Cardinals of St. Louis (90-65) Wednesday in the 2nd of their 3-game series at American Family Field.

STL clinched NL Central on Tuesday with a 6-2 victory over MIL, but the Brew Crew are 1.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for the final NL wildcard spot.

However, the MIL starter on Wednesday — RHP Brandon Woodruff (12-4, 3.18) – struggle historically against cardinals. While STL starts LHP Jose Quintana was extinguished in MIL.

BET the ST. CARDINAL LOUIS (+135) pile up against a dejected Brew Crew on Wednesday at DraftKings Sportsbook.

  • Moneyline (ML): CARDINALS (+135)Brewers (-155)
  • Run Line (RL): Cardinals +1.5 (-170), Brewers -1.5 (+145)
  • Total (O/U) — 7 — O: -120, U: +100
Cardinals starter Jose Quintana. (Justin Berl/Getty Images)

Quintana of the Cardinals = underrated; Brewer’s woodruff = overrated

MLB talking heads projected MIL’s rotation would be among the best 1-2 combinations with Woodruff after defending NL winner Cy Young, RHP Corbin Burnes.

Woodruff failed to live up to his end of the bargain. His stats are impressive, but Woodruff isn’t very good against quality competition.

The Brewers are just 13-14 (SU) in Woodruff starts against teams with a winning record since 2020 and a return on investment (ROI) of -16.8%. MIL is just 3-5 SU against the Cardinals with a -39.6% ROI when Woodruff starts on that stretch.

Quintana knows the Brewers after spending most of his career in the NL Central and faces tough teams.

His teams are 6-1 SU since 2018 when Quintana started in MIL with a +3.00 margin of victory (MoV) and +70.7% ROI throwing for the Cardinals, Pittsburgh Pirates and the Chicago Cubs. Quintana teams are 9-9 SU against winning teams with a +0.44 MoV and +27.2% ROI over the past three seasons.

Finally, MIL’s lineup ranks 24th in wRC+ versus left-handed pitcher, 24th in wOBA, 18th in BB/K rate, and 23rd in ISO, according to FanGraphs. The Brewers are scoring just 3.86 points per nine against lefties.

Ultimately, we’re getting a good price on the Cardinals here because of the public perception that Woodruff is an All-Star caliber pitcher and Quintana is sleepy.

Go to DraftKings Sportsbook and BET the ST. CARDINAL LOUIS (+135). I would play STL’s ML up to +120. That said, let’s wait to get closer to the first pitch in case the Cardinals seat their starters and because most of the market is betting on the Brewers.

DraftKings Sportbook odds Wednesday, September 28 at 11:10 a.m. ET

FOLLOW GEOFF ON TWITTER: @Geoffery_Clark

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