Tuesday’s battle between the Baltimore Orioles and Chicago Cubs won’t exactly be a godsend, but in a long and grueling MLB season, these easy-to-skip games often present bettors with decent opportunities.
As expected, the first third of this season has been a bit of a pain for the Cubs. Chicago arrives at Camden Yards with a 23-32 record and 9.5 games separating them from the top of the NL Central. The North Siders are also seven games away from the Wild Card picture.
New customers only. Must be 21 years or older. AZ, CO, IA, IL, IN, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY only. Full terms and conditions apply.
Up to $1500 first bet risk free
New users only, 21 years or older. NY, CO, DC, IA, IN, IL, MI, NV, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. Full terms and conditions apply.
Bet $50 Get $200 in free bets
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&Cs apply
100% first deposit up to $250 with promo code NYPBONUS
New players only, 21+. NY, NJ, MI, AZ, VA only. In order to participate in this promotion, the player must make a first deposit (of at least $10). Full terms and conditions apply.
Bet $5, Get $200 Free Bets – Win or Lose
21+. New customers only. NY, AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV only. T&Cs apply
Risk-free bet up to $1000 + a free month of Fubo TV
New users only, 21 years or older. Available in IA, AZ only. Full terms and conditions apply.
Bet $1 Get $200 in betting credits with NYP365
21+. New customers only. New Jersey only. Full terms and conditions apply.
Bet $20, get $100 in free bets
21+ and new customers only. New Jersey and Pennsylvania only. Full terms and conditions apply.
Get a first deposit of $250
21+, new customers only. NJ and CT only. Full terms and conditions apply.
Cubs vs. Orioles Odds
Odds provided by BetMGM
Spread: CHC -1.5 (+140) versus BAL +1.5 (-165)
Money line: CHC (-115) against BAL (-105)
Total: More than 8.5 (-120) | Less than 8.5 (+100)
Cubs likely pitchers vs. Orioles
Keegan Thompson (1.99) vs. Kyle Bradish (6.82)
Prediction Cubs vs Orioles
While Chicago’s offense has been decent relative to its standings, the pitching staff has struggled to achieve a 4.30 ERA, which is the sixth-worst rating in MLB. However, the Cubs will turn to one of the brightest staff, Keegan Thompson, on Tuesday.
Thompson posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 45.1 innings in 2022, though much of his work was done as a long reliever. And while Thompson’s underlying metrics like his 3.21 xERA and 3.95 xFIP point to some regression, his ability to limit hard contacts should help keep that in check. According baseball scholarThompson ranks in the 87th percentile in hard-hit percentage, so he doesn’t need to master lineups to be successful.
And it’s not like Thompson will face a strong lineup on Tuesday, either. The Orioles rank 23rd in wOBA and 20th in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this season.
Thompson should also have plenty of rope to work at Camden Yards as his counterpart, Kyle Bradish, has struggled in his rookie campaign. Although Bradish was a bit unhappy, even a positive regression from his 6.82 ERA to his 5.57 xERA won’t turn him into anything special. Bradish gives up a ton of hard contacts, sitting in the third percentile in exit speed and 15th percentile in hard hit percentage.
Bradish’s last four starts have been particularly ugly, allowing 17 earned runs on 25 hits and five homers in 16 innings pitched.
Neither Keegan Thompson nor Kyle Bradish are a household name, but there’s a clear A-side in this pitching game and it’s enough to act on the Cubs as a slight favorite down the road.
Cubs pick vs. Orioles
Cubs -115 (BetMGM)