Colts in Week 6 ‘Revenge Spot’ Vs. Jaguars – OutKick

It feels like the wrong team is being favored when the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) visit the Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1) Sunday in Week 6 at Lucas Oil Stadium.

After all, the Jaguars beat the Colts 24-0 earlier this season in Jacksonville, and Indy’s forward metrics are terrible. But that’s what sports betting wants you to think.

However, the Jaguars are a “sucker bet” in this game. Most people know that Jacksonville is a glue factory for the Colts and ignore how poor the Jaguars are at Indy.

Head to PointsBet Sportsbook and BET the INDIANAPOLIS COLAL (-135) on the moneyline (ML). For the record, I would play Indy’s ML down to -150 before laying down to -3.5 (-110) with the Colts.

  • ML: Jaguars (+115), COLAL (-135)
  • ATS (ATS): Jaguars +2 (-110), FOAL -2 (-110)
  • Total (O/U) — 42 — O: -107, U: -107

Indy’s ‘strength over weakness’ advantage

The Jaguars can’t run the ball, and rushing defense is about the only thing the Colts have done well this season. Jacksonville rushed for just 96 yards on 37 carries against Indy in Week 2.

Additionally, Jacksonville’s offense is 26th in expected points added per game (EPA/game) and Indianapolis’ defense ranks fourth in EPA/game.

Plus I’ll try my luck with Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence beat the Colts through the air. It’s been abysmal recently.

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (Don Juan Moore/Getty Images)

Lawrence has committed seven turnovers in the last two weeks (3 INT and 4 fumbles lost) with a 51.4% completion rate and a 64.0 QB rating.

discoloration of jaguars

Jacksonville ranks seventh in overall adjusted efficiency by Soccer Outsiders. Yet when you dig a little deeper into the Jaguars, they become less impressive.

They lost to a bad Washington Commanders team in Week 1. Then they crushed the Colts 24-0 the following week but Indy was without a WR Michael Pitman.

Jacksonville won a second straight game against the Los Angeles Chargers, 38-10. However, LA was hit and Chargers QB Justin Herbert had fractured ribs.

The Jaguars have lost back-to-back games, including a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles where they puked on themselves and a no-show to the Houston Texans last week in Jacksonville.

The bottom line here is that the Jaguars get too much love for a few lopsided wins and come down to earth.

Foals at prolonged rest

Indy beat the Denver Broncos 12-9 in Week 5 Thursday Night Football and has extra prep time for this division game.

The Colts are 4-0 (SU) and 3-0-1 ATS after a bye since 2018 (Indy head coach Frank Reich’s first year on the job). Indianapolis has a margin of victory (MoV) of +10.0 in those games.

Dynamic Indianapolis Victory

Of course, Indy’s 12-9 win over Denver last week was one of the NFL’s ugliest wins this season. But, a win is a win and the betting market still has faith that Indianapolis can win this division.

The Colts are just behind the Tennessee Titans (+160) to win the AFC South at +180. And for as bad as Indy QB matt ryan watched, Which AFC South quarterback would you take on Ryan?

Indianapolis quarterback Matt Ryan (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)

To finish, Indianapolis is 4-0 SU against Jacksonville at home since 2018 with +10.8 MoV. Say what you will about Indianapolis’ performance so far, but a win Sunday and the Colts are back on track to win a weak division.

BET: Colts (-135) ML on PointsBet Sportsbook


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