How hard is it to reach the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Falls? Well, the first three days of the September encounter went by with no one building a winning ticket, which means Sunday’s card has a Super High 5 carry of $15,343.
The Super High 5 is available to bet in Race 10 (start time 5:26 p.m. ET), an inaugural one-mile weight special for horses three years and older. A field of 11 was entered, which equals 55,440 possible results.
Among experienced participants, #3 Ship (7-2) might be the best. He hit the board in four consecutive first special weights, and while three of them came on the turf, he ran second on the main track at Churchill Downs on July 1. The 82 Brisnet speed rating he posted doesn’t stand out from Sunday’s field, but Shipman’s consistency allows him to land another strong finish.
However, for victory purposes, we may want to lean towards beginners with greater potential to approach the 90 Brisnet speed rating plateau which represents the winning par figure for Sunday’s class tier.
First and foremost is #11 Higginson (4-1), a solidly bred son of Curlin and Grade 1 winning mare Medaglia d’Oro Dickinson. Higginson put up a respectable work tab at Ellis Park (highlighted by a ball half a mile from the starting gate in: 47 1/5), and coach Brad Cox is winning at an impressive rate of 22% with horses debuting a mile and over.
#5 Lysander (3-1) is also worth seeing. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott only hits a 5% rate with horses debuting a mile or more, but Lysander is elevated top-to-bottom to long run and sets out on a series of flashy workouts at Churchill Downs, including a :47 3/5 half-mile ball.
#4 Electromagnetic (10-1) is difficult to analyze statistically. Trainer Todd Pletcher hits at a 20% rate with horses starting a mile or more, but Pletcher rarely saddles beginners at Churchill, compiling a 1-for-10 (10%) record with such riders since 2017. Side , Electromagnetic has a strong road racing pedigree and will be ridden by hot jockey Julien Leparoux.
If we put Higginson at the top of our tickets and focus on Shipman below (with a healthy dose of Lysander and Electromagnetic as well), we should have a good chance of hitting the Super High 5.
- $1 Super High 5: 11 with 3 with 2, 5, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10 ($48)
- $1 Super High 5: 11 with 2, 5, 8 with 3 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8 with 1, 2, 4, 5, 8, 10 ($48)