Bet this prop in the co-main event on Saturday (June 4)

Dan Ige vs. Movsar Evloev odds

Ige odds
Evloyev odds
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2.5 (-400 / +290)
About. 6 p.m. ET
Odds from Friday and via BetMGM.

On Saturday, a top-10 spot in the featherweight rankings will be on the line as No. 10-ranked Dan Ige takes on No. 13 Movsar Evloev in the co-main event at UFC Vegas 56.

After riding a seven-fight winning streak against Calvin Kattar just two years ago, Ige has lost three of his last four fights.

Evloev is undefeated (15-0) for his career with a 5-0 record in the octagon – all by decision.

Below I will provide my analysis and projections for Saturday’s game and use these factors to bet on the main event.

Tale of the Band

Ige Evloyev
Registration 15-5 15-0
Avg. Battle time 12:59 15:00
Height 5’7″ 5’7″
Weight (pounds) 145 pounds. 145 pounds.
Range (inches) 71″ 72″
Position Orthodox Orthodox
Date of Birth 08/06/91 02/11/94
Signature strokes per minute 3.90 4.32
SS Accuracy 46% 44%
SS absorbed per minute 3.47 2.79
SS Defense 57% 63%
Avg. 1.35 4.0
Acc TD 25% 47%
Def TD 55% 71%
Mean of submission 0.4 0.4

Ige’s takedown defense (55% career) will be crucial in this game. Evloev fights at a high volume (4 takedowns every 15 minutes, 47% accuracy) and is adept at controlling his opponents on the mat.

Evloev has 75 minutes of fight time in the UFC and has spent nearly 30 minutes (29:57) grappling opponents, roughly 40% of his fight time.

He’s an efficient forward (+1.53 significant striking margin; 107% combination of striking accuracy and defense) who does well at creating openings while maintaining the threat of takedowns.

Still, Evloev doesn’t offer significant power and has a relatively low knockout probability on his feet. If Ige can stay up, he will undoubtedly be a live underdog. He is the much larger hitter and has had competitive hitting matches with Calvin Kattar and Edson Barboza. Also, Evloev doesn’t seem exceptionally durable – Hakeem Dawodu has injured him and Ige has enough power to swing most featherweights.

That said, Ige might struggle to keep this fight on its feet. The Honolulu native was manhandled by Chang Sung Jung (“The Korean Zombie”), allowing three takedowns and spending 40% of their main fight in control positions.

Ige has a BJJ black belt and can competently defend submissions. Still, he’s not a great jammer, and every takedown could be a full turn in favor of Evloev. That said, Evloev came close to tapping against Nick Lentz – and Ige has enough chops to threaten submissions if he manages to find a dominant position on the mat.

Evloev is a grinder. He will look to flush and repeat with takedown attempts, pushing Ige against the cage or controlling him for long stretches on the mat. His style isn’t fan-friendly, but he’s very effective at buying minutes and securing decisions – especially if he can grab and hold Ige for long bouts.

Both men provide great cardio, and the fight should come down to a decision at a high level. While Evloev might find it hard to live up to his high price tag, given his limited finishing potential, it’s hard to imagine him losing two rounds in this fight as long as he can get takedowns; unless it is knocked down several times.

Although Ige is complete enough to make this fight competitive, a knockout might be his most likely win condition.

Ige vs Evloev Pick

I projected Movsar Evloev as the near 80% favorite in this fight (implied -390), and I see no value either side of the moneyline.

Also, I expect this fight to result in a decision (or distance) 74% of the time (-283 implied), and I see no value either side of the total or distance. prop (-350 Yes, +225 No).

For winning method props, I set Evloev’s decision equity at 80% and projected his chance of winning by decision at 63.7% (implied -175),

Consequently, I bet Evloev by decision at -150 (60% implied) on Bet365; I would put that number up to -161 (61.7%) at a 2% advantage.

The choice : Movsar Evloev wins by decision (-150)

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