Still quietly, the Tennessee Titans have won six of their last seven games. More impressive from a sports bettor’s perspective: The Titans enter their Thursday Night Football battle at the Packers having covered the point spread in each of those seven contests.
None of the other 31 teams currently have a winning streak against the ATS of more than two games.
So not supporting the Titans (6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS) as an underdog against the sub-.500 Packers (4-6 SU and ATS) seems foolish. Well, we are going to face the hottest cover team in the country.
Here is our Titans vs. Packers prediction for Thursday Night Football.
Note: Odds were updated at 1 p.m. ET on November 16.
Let’s start with a mea culpa: While we made a well-reasoned argument, we missed Sunday’s pick of the Cowboys -4 in Green Bay. Then again, we weren’t counting on Dallas for the first time in franchise history with a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter.
Kudos to the Packers for being the team that ended the Cowboys’ 195-game winning streak as they led by two touchdowns with 15 minutes left. But that’s not why we’re shifting gears and siding with Green Bay, who basically needed a miracle to end their six-game losing streak.
READ MORE: Eagles-Colts line in motion after Eagles drop Game 1
No, we just believe that no matter what the records say, the Packers are the better team on Thursday night. And they are absolutely in the best situation.
How can we suggest that a team with a lucky win in their last seven games is better than an opponent who has only suffered one loss in their last seven games – an overtime loss on the road? Look at the competition.
Since opening the season with losses to the Giants and Bills — two playoff contenders who are combined 13-5 on the season — Tennessee has had six wins over the Raiders, Colts (twice), Commanders, Texans and Broncos.
Combined record of those five teams entering Week 11: 15-30-2, with Washington (5-5) leading the group.
In fact, you could easily argue that the Titans’ only loss since Week 2 — a 20-17 overtime loss Sunday night at Kansas City — inspires more confidence than any of their seven wins.
On the other hand, eight of Green Bay’s 10 opponents are at or above .500. And seven of those foes — Vikings, Bucs, Patriots, Giants, Jets, Bills and Cowboys — are legitimate playoff contenders.
Granted, the Packers have only beaten three of those teams by a total of eight points, including two at home in overtime. But that’s three more wins than Tennessee against playoff contenders.
READ MORE: Jalen Hurts still among favorites to win NFL MVP in star-studded field
As for the situational element mentioned earlier, Tennessee is playing its third road game in the past four weeks and its fifth in the past seven. Meanwhile, Green Bay is playing back-to-back home games for the first time this season.
That’s huge, and not just because of the short week factor. As we noted last week, the Packers endured a brutal seven-week odyssey that saw them travel from Green Bay to London, then back to Green Bay before embarking on a three-game road trip to Washington. , Buffalo and Detroit — all between Oct. 1. November 2 and 6.
Will this game be easy for the Packers? Highly unlikely, as Titans are never easy. But Tennessee has the most one-dimensional offense in football — behind running back Derrick Henry, the Titans rank ninth in rushing but 31st in passing and 32nd in total yards.
This translates to the 26th worst offence. Tennessee is yet to score more than 24 points this season, finishing with 21 or fewer in seven games (including the last five straight).
Green Bay’s offense hasn’t been much better. But the 31-point blowout against a solid Dallas defensive unit is a strong sign that Rodgers and co. turned a corner. And just in time, as they take on a Titans defense that allows the second-most passing yards in the NFL.
Let that fact sink in as you go through the list of quarterbacks Tennessee have faced this year:
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes (two stallions who had 763 yards and five touchdowns against the Titans), plus Daniel Jones, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan (twice), Carson Wentz, Davis Mills and a rapidly regressing Russell Wilson .
Unless their flimsy run defense is absolutely thwarted by Henry, the Packers would have to defend their home turf and prevail by more than one field goal against a road-weary opponent struggling to to mark.
Set the points Thursday night with Green Bay at BetMGM.
Titans vs. Packers Odds (via BetMGM):
Point spread: Titans (+3, -105) @ Packers (-3, -115)
Money line: Titans (+140) @ Packers (-165)
» READ MORE: Comprehensive sports betting coverage by The Philadelphia Inquirer
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator or gambling site. We provide this sports betting information for entertainment purposes only.