Bet Nikola Jokic in Game 1 vs Warriors (April 16)

It’s officially the start of the NBA Playoffs!

It reminds me of Christmas Day with all the games happening one after the other starting at 1pm ET. We have four exciting Round 1 openers today: Jazz vs. Mavericks (1 p.m. ET), Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies (3:30 p.m. ET), Raptors vs. 76ers (6 p.m. ET), Nuggets vs. Warriors (8:30 a.m. ET). ).

As always, we will use the Action Labs Player Prop Tool to compare our NBA projections to the props displayed on a variety of sportsbooks.

Below I’ve outlined three prop bets I play, the case for each bet, and the best books for finding odds on these player props.

Prepare your popcorn and let’s earn money.

NBA Players’ Accessories and Picks

Spencer Dinwiddie, over 20.5 points (-120)

Mavericks vs. Jazz Jazz-5
Time | TV 1 p.m. ET | ESPN
best book WynnBet

The last game of the regular season was a nightmare for the Dallas Mavericks. Not only did they fail to capture the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference, but they lost their best player, Luka Doncic, for at least the start of the playoffs.

Luckily the Mavericks came out for Spencer Dinwiddie at the trade deadline as he will be called upon to provide the bulk of the offense from a scoring and facilitation perspective in the absence of Doncic. In two games without Doncic this season, Dinwiddie is averaging 31 points and 6.5 assists per game, while shooting 54.3% from the field with a 33.7% usage rate.

The Mavericks are still five-point home underdogs where they’re expected to score the fewest points on the slate. It’s a tough situation for them without their star point guard, but Dinwiddie will have so many chances to overcome that points prop. It will definitely fire enough attempts to give it a try.

Dinwiddie failed to achieve that most-point prop in eight consecutive games, but that was largely thanks to Doncic leading the league in usage per game. Given the Jazz’s tough defense and the Mavericks’ unimplied total, don’t get carried away with this prop. I like him at 20.5 points where he is tonight.

Karl-Anthony Towns, under 24.5 points (-110)

Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves Grizzlies -6.5
Time | TV 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
best book WynnBet

The Minnesota Timberwolves were heavily criticized for the way they celebrated their qualifying tournament win, but it’s been a while since they’ve returned to the playoffs and Patrick Beverley has eliminated his former team.

They find themselves in a match that I think suits them very well. Two young teams with similar playoff experience in what should be an exciting long series. The Timberwolves led the league in scoring as the Grizzlies came in second, so it should come as no surprise that this game had the highest total on the slate.

It looks like the teams are starting to understand Karl-Anthony Towns to some degree. Get physical with him and double down on him every time he’s on the block or puts the ball down. That’s what the Clippers did and Towns got frustrated and ended up fouling playing just 24 minutes with 11 points.

It’s not that hard to get in charge of Towns these days and the Grizzlies have a great defense to pull it off. They rank sixth in defensive rating, allowing 109.9 points per game. Jaren Jackson Jr., who will likely get Towns duty, is averaging a league-high 2.2 blocks per game. Add to that the fact that Towns leads the league in fouls per game since the All-Star break, I’ll take the least.

Nikola Jokic, more than 7.5 assists (-105)

Warriors vs. Nuggets Warriors -6.5
Time | TV 8:30 p.m. ET | ABC
best book PointsBet

This Nuggets and Warriors series would be very different if Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. could adapt, but that’s unlikely to happen. This will continue to be Nikola Jokic’s show as he is the favorite for his second straight MVP award. He is very deserving as he continues to post huge stats.

Jokic became the first player in league history to finish a single season with 2,000 points, 1,000 rebounds and 500 assists. His assist numbers have been dropping recently as Jokic tried to score as many points as possible and grab an insane amount of rebounds to get that MVP award again.

Jokic destroys the warriors. In nine games over the past three seasons, Jokic has averaged 24.4 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game along with two triple-doubles. They’ll probably start with Kevon Looney guarding him and then move on to Draymond Green who’s much smaller. Jokic is unstoppable.

Our model projected Jokic for 9.4 assists tonight as Jokic and the Nuggets look to upset the Warriors on the road. The Warriors, when healthy, are a very dangerous team as they will recover Stephen Curry who has missed 12 straight games.

The Warriors present a tough defense, but Jokic is the MVP favorite for a reason. I wouldn’t mind sprinkling cash on his triple-double prop on DraftKings at +275. Jokic will dominate in this game.

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