They say if you’re lucky enough to do what you love, you’ll never work a day in your life.
Well, I’m officially lucky.
My wife and I are on our annual “Holy s***, football and March madness is finally over” vacation, but I still can’t get away from NASCAR betting and that fucking computer.
I actually bought the Wi-Fi upgrade on our flight just so I could watch NASCAR Cup Series practice and qualifying yesterday.
Is this article my way of letting the accounting department at Action Network know that they will soon see a request for Wi-Fi expenses? Yes yes it is.
But I also bet on NASCAR, so while Cocktail Christi sleeps after the Saturday night shenanigans, I’m sitting on our balcony with coffee and a bagel in hand, gaming and writing.
As my dad would say (although he’s already into whiskey at this point), “Isn’t life beautiful?”
So I’m shaving off my first holiday hangover with these two attachments for today’s (3 p.m. ET, FS1) DuraMAX Drydene 400 at Dover.
NASCAR at Dover Betting Picks
*Sunday morning odds
Brad Keselowski (+1400) for Top Ford
Our own Nick Giffen is already pretty heavy on Kevin Harvick as the best Ford for today’s race at Dover and, no, I’m not disagreeing with him and wouldn’t be here either anyway – I would whine on Twitter, like everyone else.
Think of it as a side bet.
Brad Keselowski never did a 10-lap race in practice, but I still really like him for today’s race for two reasons.
First, it posted the fastest five-lap average in testing, which surprised me a bit when I looked at the data.
Second – I can’t take credit for it – a NASCAR bettor friend of mine sent me this tweet from Keselowski from yesterday:
In my own Irish coffee-fueled NASCAR standings, I have Ryan Blaney and Harvick ahead of Keselowski among the Ford drivers for today’s race, but that 14-1 at BetMGM is just too good to pass up as a experienced driver who showed flashes of speed in practice and loves his racing car.
Am I placing too much emphasis on a driver’s quote rather than data? Most likely.
I’m a man with many, MANY flaws, so I’m going to have to learn the hard way on this one, but it’s a dip worth taking at this price.
Ryan Preece (+230) for a Top 10
Is there a worse NASCAR betting strategy than going against Bob Pockrass’ information?
Well, fasten your buttercup belt, because that’s exactly what I do.
Preece is in a car prepared by Rick Ware Racing, but there was help from the folks at SHR after the car needed some work to get through the technology. https://t.co/kMWU74yqV7
— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) May 1, 2022
Pockrass has been consistent that this car is basically a Rick Ware Racing effort, although the speed Preece has already shown this weekend is far above what we normally see from the #15 car.
Here are Preece’s rankings in average speeds over five, 10, 15 and 20 laps during practice, respectively: third, second, fourth and fourth.
Plus, Preece backed up that speed with a 13th-place finish in qualifying yesterday.
One of the hardest concepts for recreational bettors to understand is that to be profitable in the long run, you have to make bets that you expect to lose.
For example, I don’t expect Preece to finish in the top 10 today at Dover.
But for this bet to be good, it doesn’t need to finish in the top 10 more than 50% of the time. Based on his +230 chance of placing in the top 10 at FanDuel, the break-even point is 30.3%.
Backed by its speed in practice and qualifying yesterday, as well as my blinding arrogance in ignoring GOAT Bob Pockrass, I believe there are more SHR resources devoted to this car than reported.
And assuming I still have your attention, please stop with the Justin Timberlake “It’s gonna be May” memes.
Much like John Mulaney, it never was and never will be funny.